Following the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York City, concerns were raised by conservative commentators regarding a potential mass departure of wealthy residents due to proposed tax increases on high earners. The New York Post, a conservative publication, suggested that nearly a million individuals might flee the city, contributing to a narrative of impending economic decline under Mamdani's leadership.

However, recent data contradicts these claims. Reports indicate that signed contracts for homes priced over $4 million in Manhattan increased in November compared to October, with the luxury market showing a 16% decrease in inventory year-over-year, suggesting a commitment from affluent individuals to remain in the city.

Experts in the field, including Cristobal Young, an associate professor at Cornell University, assert that the migration rates of high-income individuals are low. Factors contributing to this stability include personal attachments to the city, such as family and economic ties, which make relocation less appealing. Young's research indicates that while some individuals may choose to leave, the majority of high-income earners are likely to stay and continue contributing to the city's tax revenues.

Quentin Parrinello, policy director at the EU Tax Observatory, supports this view, noting that cultural, family, and economic connections often outweigh the financial implications of tax increases. Studies from various regions, including Scandinavia and France, further illustrate that while high-net-worth individuals may exhibit some mobility, it is generally limited and influenced by a range of factors beyond taxation.

In summary, the anticipated flight of wealthy residents from New York City following Mamdani's election appears unfounded, as data suggests that the majority are choosing to remain, thereby continuing their economic contributions to the city.