As the Trump administration approaches the end of the year, it has intensified military operations against alleged drug trafficking in Venezuela, with President Donald Trump attributing the surge in Venezuelan migrants to the actions of President Nicolás Maduro. Trump has suggested that military action may be necessary to pressure Maduro to resign, claiming that Venezuela contributes to the migration crisis by sending individuals from prisons into the U.S. However, there is no substantial evidence supporting the assertion that Venezuelan migrants predominantly come from prison backgrounds.

The administration's military strategy includes plans for potential strikes against drug cartels, raising alarms among experts who warn that such actions could lead to significant displacement. A study by the Niskanen Center estimates that military strikes could displace between 1.7 million and 3 million people if they provoke a brief internal conflict, and potentially over 4 million if a prolonged conflict ensues. This echoes the refugee crisis of 2017, which saw thousands of Venezuelans seeking refuge in the U.S.

In response to the escalating situation, the U.S. Navy has increased its presence in the Caribbean, deploying the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the region. While limited strikes focused on drug-trafficking infrastructure might result in fewer than 20,000 refugees, a full-scale intervention could lead to substantial displacement, overwhelming neighboring countries such as Colombia and Brazil. Experts indicate that most refugees would likely remain in nearby countries rather than reaching the U.S.

The Venezuelan economy has been severely affected by U.S. sanctions targeting its state-owned oil company, PDVSA, which has historically been the main source of revenue for the country. These sanctions, particularly those intensified in 2017 and 2019, have contributed to hyperinflation and widespread shortages of essential goods, leading to a significant increase in migration. By 2021, over 5 million Venezuelans had fled the country, marking one of the largest displacement crises globally.

Critics of the Trump administration's military actions have raised legal and ethical questions regarding their legitimacy and the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy. There are concerns that these military operations could escalate into a wider conflict, potentially leading to military occupation and severe impacts on Venezuelan civilians. Former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela James Story has suggested that while limited military actions may not lead to large-scale displacement, widespread military conflict could result in a humanitarian crisis. The situation remains complex, with the potential for further upheaval if military actions are pursued.