Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has projected that American taxpayers will receive notably large tax refunds in the first quarter of 2026, attributing this to the tax cuts enacted under President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Bessent, who also serves as the acting commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), stated during an appearance on the "All-In Podcast" that many households could expect refunds ranging from $1,000 to $2,000, as most workers did not adjust their tax withholdings following the implementation of the new tax provisions.

The OBBBA, signed into law in July 2025, is expected to result in refunds larger than usual due to its retroactive application to the beginning of the year. The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy organization, supports Bessent's prediction, indicating that the OBBBA reduced individual taxes by approximately $144 billion for 2025, with estimates suggesting that up to $100 billion of this reduction could translate into higher tax refunds for Americans.

The Tax Foundation noted that because the IRS did not update withholding tables after the law's passage, many workers continued to withhold more taxes than necessary. Consequently, taxpayers will receive the benefits of the tax cuts in a lump sum when filing their returns, rather than through increased take-home pay throughout the year.

The OBBBA includes several significant tax cuts, such as increases to the child tax credit, adjustments to the standard deduction, a higher cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, and new or expanded deductions for various categories, including seniors, auto loan interest, tip income, and overtime pay. The Trump administration anticipates that the upcoming tax refund cycle will be the largest in history, reflecting the substantial financial implications of these legislative changes.