The U.S. labor market experienced fluctuations in recent months, with an estimated loss of 105,000 jobs in October, followed by the addition of 64,000 jobs in November, according to official reports. This job growth in November exceeded many economists' expectations, who had forecasted an increase of approximately 40,000 jobs. However, the overall unemployment rate continued to rise, reaching 4.6%, marking a four-year high.

These job figures were delayed due to a 43-day federal government shutdown, which has raised concerns regarding the accuracy of the data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that full job data for October would not be released, and the November figures were also postponed. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell advised caution in interpreting the BLS data, suggesting that the figures may not fully reflect the current labor market conditions.

Signs of a weakening job market have emerged, as ADP reported a loss of approximately 32,000 jobs in the private sector for November, following a gain of 47,000 jobs in October. The September jobs report, which was also delayed, indicated an addition of 119,000 jobs, although the unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.4%, the highest level since 2021.

Powell expressed concerns that the actual job figures might be worse than reported, attributing some of the labor supply issues to immigration policies from the Trump administration. He noted that the lack of growth in the workforce could lead to an overcount in payroll job numbers, which may need correction in future reports.

The BLS has faced scrutiny from the Trump administration, including the dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer shortly after the release of the July jobs report. The agency has also seen a reduction in staff, losing 20% of its workforce since fiscal year 2024, which raises questions about its capacity to provide reliable employment data during critical economic periods.